Futures Trading Outlook: Micro Nasdaq Futures Bullish, Gold Stagnant

6 min readJun 4, 2024

In this week’s coverage, we analyze the bullish trends in the Micro Nasdaq 100 Index futures and the stagnation in gold futures. We also examine the economic reports and earnings announcements expected next week.

Please Note:
Commentary and charts reflect data at the time of writing (Friday, May 24 at 1 PM ET), and market conditions may change by the publication of this analysis.

June E-Mini Nasdaq 100 Index Futures Weekly Chart

June E-Mini Nasdaq 100 Index futures finished the week strong, getting a boost from better-than-expected NVIDIA earnings on Wednesday afternoon. Nasdaq futures made an all-time high, and continues the 5-week trend of all green candles. Nasdaq remained well above its moving averages and the Ichimoku cloud. The MACD histogram is poised to cross above the zero line, which would confirm a bullish trend. RSI, while it has up ticked along with price, shows a bit of divergence as its peaks have trended lower while Nasdaq peaks increase. If this rally continues, look for the 50% Fibonacci extension level (19,170) and the 61.8% Fib extension level (19,655) as resistance areas. A downturn could see support at the 38.2% Fib extension level (18,685).

June E-Mini Nasdaq 100 Index futures weekly chart

June Gold Futures Weekly Chart

June gold futures ended the week toward the lower end of the 2,300 to 2,450 range that it has been in since early April. While gold did extend past the peak high made in April, it also finished below the 23.6% retracement level of the bullish move that began in February. This week’s candle body engulfed the previous week’s body, which could imply follow through into next week. Price remains well above the 26-week and 52-week moving averages. The MACD appears to be losing momentum as the MACD histogram appears to be declining towards the zero line. This is consistent with consolidative and reversing markets. The RSI shows bearish divergence, as the gold price has traded sideway while the RSI is making lower peak highs. The expectation here is that price should follow. If golds get some follow through from the sellers, expect support at the 38.2% Fib retracement level (2,284) and below that at the 50% Fib level (2,233). A reversal might find resistance at the recent high (2,454).

June gold futures weekly chart

Companies Reporting Earnings May 27 — May 31

Canadian banks report earnings almost all week, starting with Bank of Nova Scotia on Tuesday, Bank of Montreal on Wednesday, and CIBC and Royal Bank on Thursday. Retail is also on tap as general retail stores (Best Buy, Costco, Dollar General, and Kohl’s); and specialty stores (Advance Auto Parts, Dick’s Sporting Goods, Nordstrom, and the Gap) report Tuesday through Thursday. The lone Dow Jones stock reporting is Salesforce, which is 13th in terms of market capitalization. A light week lies ahead due in part to the Memorial Day holiday on Monday.

Date | Companies Earnings

Monday, May 27 Market Holiday

Tuesday, May 28

Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS): $1.14 EPS Estimate, $6.14B Revenue Estimate (BMO)

Wednesday, May 29

Advance Auto Parts Inc. (CSCO): $2.05 EPS Estimate, $24.48B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
DICK’S Sporting Goods, Inc. (DKS): $2.96 EPS Estimate, $2.94B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
Bank of Montreal (BMO): $2.01 EPS Estimate, $5.82B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
Salesforce (CRM): $2.38 EPS Estimate, $9.14B Revenue Estimate (AMC)
HP Inc. (HPQ): $0.81 EPS Estimate, $12.43B Revenue Estimate (AMC)

Thursday, May 30

Best Buy Co., Inc. (BBY): $1.08 EPS Estimate, $8.97B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM): $1.22 EPS Estimate, $4.49B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
Dollar General Corporation (DG): $1.57 EPS Estimate, $9.85B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
Kohl’s Corporation (KSS): $0.04 EPS Estimate, $3.55B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
Royal Bank of Canada (RY): $2.05 EPS Estimate, $9.93B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
Costco Wholesale Corp. (COST): 3.70 EPS Estimate, $58.00B Revenue Estimate (AMC)
Dell Technologies (DELL): $1.00 EPS Estimate, $21.75B Revenue Estimate (AMC)
Nordstrom, Inc. (JWN): $-0.08 EPS Estimate, $3.19B Revenue Estimate (AMC)
Gap, Inc. (GPS): $0.14 EPS Estimate, $3.28B Revenue Estimate (AMC)

Friday, May 31

N/A

* indicates that this company is in the Dow Jones Index

Economic Reports For The Week Of May 27 — May 31

With the Memorial Day holiday on Monday, the stock market is closed, so look for shortened trading hours on Monday in the futures market.

Tuesday will bring reports from different areas of the economy: Housing (Case Shiller Home Price Index and FHFA House Price Index), manufacturing (Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index), Consumer Confidence, and Money Supply.

Wednesday sees more manufacturing (from the Richmond Fed), sentiment information (Survey of Business Uncertainty from the Atlanta Fed), and the Beige Book, which lists the economic situation for various parts of the economy from the 12 Federal Reserve Districts. This is important as it may give clues as to what the FOMC might signal at the June 12 meeting.

Thursday’s biggest reports are jobless claims (which came in at 215,000 claims last week) and the first revision of Q1 2024 GDP, which was estimated to be 1.6% at the first estimate last month. Friday’s Personal Consumption Expenditure price index, also known as PCE, is what the Fed uses as their inflation measure–so deviations from the forecast could move indices in stocks, treasuries, precious metals, and currencies.

This is the last week that Fed speakers are active before the silent period that precedes the FOMC meeting. Note that the speakers listed are what is known at the time of this writing, and that other events may occur at any time.

Date | Economic Reports

Monday, May 27

Market Holiday

Tuesday, May 28

12:55 AM ET: Cleveland Fed Bank President Loretta Mester Speaks
9:00 AM ET: Case-Shiller Home Price Index
9:00 AM ET: FHFA House Price Index
9:55 AM ET: Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari Speaks
10:00 AM ET: Consumer Confidence *
10:30 AM ET: Dallas Fed Manufacturing Survey
11:00 AM ET: Export Inspections
1:00 PM ET: Money Supply *
4:00 PM ET: Crop Progress

Wednesday, May 29

7:00 AM ET: MBA Mortgage Applications
10:00 AM ET: Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index
11:00 AM ET: Survey of Business Uncertainty
1:45 PM ET: New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams Speaks *
2:00 PM ET: Beige Book
4:30 PM ET: API Weekly Oil Stocks

Thursday, May 30

8:30 AM ET: Jobless Claims ***
8:30 AM ET: GDP ***
8:30 AM ET: International Trade in Goods and Services
8:30 AM ET: Retail Inventories (Advance)
8:30 AM ET: Wholesale Inventories (Advance)
8:30 AM ET: Corporate Profits
8:30 AM ET: Export Sales
10:00 AM ET: Pending Home Sales
10:30 AM ET: EIA Natural Gas Report
11:00 AM ET: EIA Petroleum Status Report
12:05 PM ET: New York Fed Bank President John Williams Speaks
4:30 PM ET: Fed Balance Sheet

Friday, May 31

8:30 AM ET: Personal Income and Outlays ***
8:30 AM ET: Export Sales
9:45 AM ET: Chicago PMI
1:00 PM ET: Baker Hughes Rig Count
3:00 PM ET: Farm Prices
6:15 PM ET: Atlanta Fed Bank President Raphael Bostic Speaks

*** Market Moving Indicators
* Merit Extra Attention

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This article was originally published on NinjaTrader.com: https://ninjatrader.com/futures/blogs/futures-trading-outlook-micro-nasdaq-futures-bullish-gold-stagnant/