Futures Trading Outlook: Euro FX Futures Weaken

5 min readJun 17, 2024

In this week’s coverage, we analyze the bullish reversal in the E-mini Dow Jones Index, and weakness in the Euro FX futures. We also examine the economic reports expected next week.

Please Note:
Commentary and charts reflect data at the time of writing (Friday, June 7 at 1 PM ET), and market conditions may change by the publication of this analysis.

June E-Mini Dow Jones Index Futures Weekly Chart

June E-mini Dow Jones Index futures ended up in positive territory last week, closing above the 26-week moving average and the supportive trendline found by connecting lows in April. The Dow Jones remains well above the 52-week moving average and the Ichimoku cloud. The ascending triangle formed by connecting the supportive trendline with the resistance line at recent highs suggests convergence in late July. A breakout on either side could suggest a measured move of about 2,900 points. MACD, while still positive, shows weakness as the histogram is negative. RSI indicated bearish divergence when the Dow made a double top, as the RSI peak high could not reach previous peak high levels. If this reversal takes hold and price trends up, resistance may be found at the previous high level of ~40,350. A bearish move might see support at the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level of the previous uptrend (~37,625) and the 52-week moving average (~37,300).

June E-mini Dow Jones Index futures weekly chart

June Euro FX Futures Weekly Chart

June Euro FX futures closed near the low last week after the ECB announced a 25-basis point rate cut on Thursday. This kept the euro under the 26-week moving average, the 52-week moving average, the Ichimoku cloud and the yearly Volume Weighted Average Price (VWAP) as measured from the start of this year. This extends a bearish move that was indicated by a MACD cross of its signal line two weeks prior. The RSI is trending down and mirrors the Euro FX price movement. If this downtrend continues, support might be found at the midway point between the high and low of the past two years (~1.06670). Resistance might be found at the bottom of the Ichimoku cloud (~1.09290) and at the resistance line formed by connecting previous highs in July 2023 and December 2023 (~1.09650).

June Euro FX futures weekly chart

Economic Reports For The Week Of June 10 — June 14

With the FOMC announcement and subsequent press conference with Chair Powell Wednesday afternoon, expect muted trading heading into Wednesday. The 10-year note auction at 1:00 PM ET on Tuesday will be closely watched to see how the interest rate curve reacts. The Consumer Price Index on Wednesday morning could be a market mover. Headline: YoY is expected to tick down to 3.3%, and the MoM number is forecast to be 0.1% (down from previous month’s 0.3%).

The World Agriculture Supply/Demand Estimates (WASDE) are released at noon on Wednesday, which may reflect revised expectations due to wet weather in May. With the FOMC announcement at 2:00 PM ET expected to keep the federal funds rate unchanged, look to the message that comes with the announcement for hints as to future Fed activity (and possible market reaction).

Jobless Claims and a 30-year bond auction on Thursday will be received with the Fed’s messaging in mind, and may produce reactions in stock index, currency and treasury markets. The University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment report Friday morning is forecast to rebound to 73.1 off recent lows.

Fed speakers begin to express themselves after Wednesday, with New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams speaking at noon Thursday and Chicago Fed Bank President Austan Goolsbee speaking Friday at 2:00 PM ET. Note that other Fed speakers may speak at any time.

Date | Economic Reports

Monday, June 10

11:00 AM ET: Export Inspections
4:00 PM ET: Crop Progress

Tuesday, June 11

6:00 AM ET: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
8:00 AM ET: FOMC Meeting Begins
10:00 AM ET: Quarterly Services Survey
1:00 PM ET: 10-Year Note Auction *
4:30 PM ET: API Weekly Oil Stocks

Wednesday, June 12

7:00 AM ET: MBA Mortgage Applications
8:30 AM ET: CPI ***
10:30 AM ET: EIA Petroleum Status Report
12:00 PM ET: USDA Supply/Demand — Soybean, Cotton, Corn, Wheat ***
12:00 PM ET: Crop Production
2:00 PM ET: Treasury Statement
2:00 PM ET: FOMC Announcement ***
2:30 PM ET: Fed Chair Jerome Powell Press Conference ***

Thursday, June 13

8:30 AM ET: PPI-Final Demand ***
8:30 AM ET: Jobless Claims ***
8:30 AM ET: Export Sales
10:30 AM ET: EIA Natural Gas Report
1:00 PM ET: 30-Year Bond Auction *
1:00 PM ET: New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams Speaks
4:30 PM ET: Fed Balance Sheet

Friday, June 14

8:30 AM ET: Import and Export Prices
10:00 AM ET: Consumer Sentiment ***
1:00 PM ET: Baker Hughes Rig Count
2:00 PM ET: Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee Speaks

*** Market Moving Indicators
* Merit Extra Attention

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This article was originally published on NinjaTrader.com: https://ninjatrader.com/futures/blogs/futures-trading-outlook-euro-fx-futures-weaken/