Futures Trading Outlook: E-Mini S&P 500, Silver Futures Bullish

6 min readMay 23, 2024

In this week’s coverage, we analyze the bullish trends in the E-Mini S&P 500 Index and silver futures. We also examine the economic reports and earnings announcements expected next week.

Please Note:
Commentary and charts reflect data at the time of writing (Friday, May 17 at 3 PM ET), and market conditions may change by the publication of this analysis.

June E-Mini S&P 500 Index Futures Weekly Chart

June E-Mini S&P 500 Index futures made an all-time high of 5,349 last week, extending the month-long rebound off the 26-week moving average (which has been acting as support). This puts the E-Mini S&P 500 well above the 52-week moving average and the Ichimoku cloud. The MACD histogram is ready to turn back positive after the recent pullback in price, which would signify bullish momentum and could reinforce the uptrend. Likewise, RSI is returning to the overbought level of 70, which would also indicate a strong bullish move. If the uptrend continues, resistance might be found at the 38.2% Fibonacci extension level (5,390) found by measuring the previous uptrend which began in October 2023, and applying to the recent pullback low. Further resistance might be encountered at the 50% Fib extension (5,520). A return to the downtrend might find support at the 26-week moving average (5,045) and further down at the support/resistance/psychological level of 4,800.

June E-Mini S&P 500 Index futures weekly chart

July Silver Futures Weekly Chart

July silver futures finished the week closing near its high, making a 3-year high in the process (the previous high was 31.15 from May 2021). Silver’s 11.5% gain last week is the largest single week increase since July 2020, which managed an impressive 13.7% gain during the COVID pandemic. The MACD reflects this bullish move with a spike in the histogram. RSI is re-testing the overbought level of 70, which it tested a month prior before the latest pullback. Should this trend continue, resistance might be found ~32.70, which is the peak high from February 2021. A reversal might see support at the 23.6% Fibonacci retracement level (29.52) and again at the 38.2% Fib level (28.17).

July silver futures weekly chart

Companies Reporting Earnings May 20 — May 24

NVIDIA earnings will likely be the most anticipated earnings report of earnings season, due to the influence that NVIDIA’s outlook has on the commodity and energy markets. Retail companies like Target, BJ’s Wholesale, Macy’s, Lowe’s, and AutoZone may forecast the strength or weakness of consumers’ behaviors. Toll Brothers’ report on Tuesday afternoon may give insight into the housing sector. TD Bank on Thursday kicks off Canadian earnings season, with more Canadian banks reporting the following week.

Date | Companies Earnings

Monday, May 20

Zoom Video Communications (ZM): $1.19 EPS Estimate, $1.13B Revenue Estimate (AMC)

Tuesday, May 21

Macy’s, Inc. (M): $0.17 EPS Estimate, $4.85B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
Lowe’s Companies, Inc. (LOW): $2.94 EPS Estimate, $21.07B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
AutoZone, Inc. (AZO): $35.75 EPS Estimate, $4.29B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
Toll Brothers, Inc. (TOL): $4.13 EPS Estimate, $2.52B Revenue Estimate (AMC)

Wednesday, May 22

Target Corp. (CSCO): $2.05 EPS Estimate, $24.48B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
NVIDIA Corp. (NVDA): $5.58 EPS Estimate, $24.17B Revenue Estimate (AMC)

Thursday, May 23

BJ’s Wholesale Club, Inc. (BJ): $0.84 EPS Estimate, $4.86B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
TD Bank Group (TD): $1.36 EPS Estimate, $9.90B Revenue Estimate (BMO)

Friday, May 24

N/A

* indicates that this company is in the Dow Jones Index

Economic Reports For The Week Of May 20 — May 24

It’s somewhat of a slow news week from an expected news point of view. The biggest report may be the Jobless Claims report, which is forecast to come in at 221,000 claims filed. Monday and Tuesday see an unusual increase in Fed speaker activity, with 13 occasions in that two-day period. While any Fed speaker’s comments may move the market, pay attention to New York Fed President John Williams at 9:05 AM ET Tuesday.

The housing market is represented by Existing Home Sales (Wednesday AM) and New Home Sales (Thursday AM). PMI on Thursday morning could be a market mover, as could Durable Goods and Consumer Sentiment on Friday. Finance ministers and central bankers from the G7 countries (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK, and the U.S.) meet on Saturday to discuss all things finance. An official statement is released after the meeting containing meeting topics, but participants can speak with journalists during the meetings ahead of the official statement.

Date | Economic Reports

Monday, May 20

8:45 AM ET: Atlanta Fed Bank President Raphael Bostic Speaks
9:00 AM ET: Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michael Barr Speaks
9:00 AM ET: Federal Reserve Governor Christopher J. Waller Speaks
10:30 AM ET: Federal Reserve Vice Chair Philip Jefferson Speaks
11:00 AM ET: Export Inspections
11:30 AM ET: 3-Month Bill Auction
11:30 AM ET: 6-Month Bill Auction
2:00 PM ET: Cleveland Fed Bank President Loretta Mester Speaks
4:00 PM ET: Crop Progress
7:00 PM ET: Atlanta Fed Bank President Raphael Bostic Speaks

Tuesday, May 21

9:00 AM ET: Richmond Fed Bank President Thomas Barkin Speaks
9:00 AM ET: Federal Reserve Governor Christopher J. Waller Speaks
9:05 AM ET: New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams Speaks *
9:10 AM ET: Atlanta Fed Bank President Raphael Bostic Speaks
11:45 AM ET: Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michael Barr Speaks
4:30 PM ET: API Weekly Oil Stocks
7:00 PM ET: Atlanta Fed Bank President Raphael Bostic Speaks
7:00 PM ET: Cleveland Fed Bank President Loretta Mester Speaks

Wednesday, May 22

7:00 AM ET: MBA Mortgage Applications
10:00 AM ET: Atlanta Fed Business Inflation Expectations
10:00 AM ET: Quarterly Services Survey
10:00 AM ET: Existing Home Sales
10:30 AM ET: EIA Petroleum Status Report *
11:30 AM ET: 4-Month Bill Auction
1:00 PM ET: 20-Year Bond Auction
2:00 PM ET: FOMC Minutes ***

Thursday, May 23

8:30 AM ET: Jobless Claims ***
8:30 AM ET: Chicago Fed National Activity Index
8:30 AM ET: Export Sales
9:45 AM ET: PMI Composite Flash ***
10:00 AM ET: New Home Sales
10:30 AM ET: EIA Natural Gas Report *
11:00 AM ET: Kansas City Fed Manufacturing Index
3:00 PM ET: Atlanta Fed Bank President Raphael Bostic Speaks
4:30 PM ET: Fed Balance Sheet

Friday, May 24

8:30 AM ET: Durable Goods Orders
9:35 AM ET: Federal Reserve Governor Christopher J. Waller Speaks
10:00 AM ET: Consumer Sentiment *
1:00 PM ET: Baker Hughes Rig Count
3:00 PM ET: Cold Storage
3:00 PM ET: Cattle On Feed

*** Market Moving Indicators
* Merit Extra Attention

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This article was originally published on NinjaTrader.com: https://ninjatrader.com/futures/blogs/futures-trading-outlook-e-mini-s-p-500-silver-futures-bullish/