Futures Trading Outlook: E-Mini Futures On Dow Jones Bullish

NinjaTrader
6 min readMay 17, 2024

In this week’s coverage, we analyze the bullish trend in E-Mini Dow Jones futures and the pullback in WTI crude oil futures. We also examine the economic reports and earnings announcements expected next week.

Please Note:
Commentary and charts reflect data at the time of writing (Friday, May 10 at 3 PM ET), and market conditions may change by the publication of this analysis.

June E-Mini Dow Jones Index Futures Weekly Chart

June E-Mini Dow futures posted a big gain last week, finishing up 1.9% and 75% retraced off the low a month ago to the recent high at the beginning of April. The 26-week moving average has been supportive the three weeks prior, until last week provided a lift from that moving average. Applying a Fibonacci extension to the recent lows (measuring the previous uptrend from the October 2023 low to the April high), last week’s activity thrust the Dow above the 23.6% level, but fell short of the 38.2% level. Other supportive areas (52-week moving average, the Ichimoku cloud) are well below current price. Though the MACD showed a bearish cross when the market rolled over in April, the MACD histogram is once again rising close to positive. A cross above zero would put the Dow in the bullish category. RSI is trading along with price. If this rally continues, resistance may occur at the 38.2% Fib extension level (40,155) and above that at the 50% Fib level (40,9894). Support could be found at the 26-week moving average (~38.850) in case of a reversal.

June E-Mini Dow Jones futures weekly chart

June WTI Crude Oil Futures Weekly Chart

June crude oil futures finished the week slightly higher, with a doji that put a pause to the downtrend that started at the beginning of April. The low tested both the 26-week and the 52-week moving averages as support, which also coincided with the bottom of the Ichimoku cloud. Applying a Fibonacci extension–using the previous uptrend as a guide for the most recent uptrend–crude traded down to the 38.2% Fibonacci extension level. This recent pullback has the MACD line poised to cross below its signal line, which would be bearish should it happen. The RSI is trading in line with price, stagnant at mid-level of ~50. Should this market continue to weaken through the bottom of the Ichimoku cloud, look for support at the 23.6% Fib level (~73.50) and further at the December low of ~66.75. If this doji reverses the trend, look for resistance at the 50% Fib level (~81.25) and at the 61.8% Fib level (84.65).

June WTI crude oil futures weekly chart

Companies Reporting Earnings May 13 — May 17

Earning season begins to slow down, though some important retail companies could inform about the state of the economy for 2024 and into 2025. Walmart reports before market open on Thursday, and as the only Dow Jones Index company reporting this week, could move YM and MYM futures.

Alibaba, Baidu, and JD.com could provide information about the economy on a global scale, as these are all international companies. Investors and traders will look to their guidance for an economic outlook on the retail side. Home Depot might give us information not only about retail but also about the housing market. Other notable companies reporting this week: Sony Group, Cisco Systems, John Deere, Applied Materials, and Brazilian oil giant Petrobras.

Date | Companies Earnings

Monday, May 13

Petrobras (PBR): $0.84 EPS Estimate, $26.32B Revenue Estimate (AMC)

Tuesday, May 14

Alibaba Group (BABA): $1.49 EPS Estimate, $30.83B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
Home Depot, Inc. (HD): $3.61 EPS Estimate, $36.69B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
Sony Group Corporation (SONY): $0.83 EPS Estimate, $18.97B Revenue Estimate (BMO)

Wednesday, May 15

Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO): $0.83 EPS Estimate, $12.47B Revenue Estimate (AMC)

Thursday, May 16

Walmart Inc. (WMT): $0.52 EPS Estimate, $158.89B Revenue Estimate (BMO) *
Baidu, Inc. (BIDU): $2.28 EPS Estimate, $4.31B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
JD.com, Inc. (JD): $0.64 EPS Estimate, $35.75B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
Deere & Company (DE): $7.83 EPS Estimate, $13.26B Revenue Estimate (BMO)
Applied Materials, Inc. (AMAT): $1.96 EPS Estimate, $6.51B Revenue Estimate (BMO)

Friday, May 17

N/A

* indicates that this company is in the Dow Jones Index

Economic Reports For The Week Of May 13 — May 17

The double whammy of the Producer Price Index (PPI) on Tuesday morning and Consumer Price Index (CPI) on Wednesday morning will be the biggest impact stories this week. The headline PPI number month-over-month is forecast to be 0.3% and for CPI that number is forecast to be 0.4%. Headline CPI is forecast to tick down slightly to 3.4%.

While the MoM numbers are heading in the wrong direction for the Fed’s mandate to keep inflation low, the YoY trend appears to be heading in the right direction. If the actual numbers for inflation are off from the forecast, expect volatility in most markets. While the number of Fed speakers are in double digits this week, the most anticipated speaker will be Chair Powell Tuesday morning at 10:00 AM, where he will most likely have comments about inflation after the PPI number drops.

The manufacturing sector sees reports from New York and Philadelphia Fed districts, and the housing market is busy with reports from the NAHB on Wednesday morning, and Housing Starts and Permits on Thursday morning. It’s important to note that Federal Reserve speaking engagements outside of the ones listed here may pop up at any time.

Date | Economic Reports

Monday, May 13

9:00 AM ET: Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester Speaks
11:00 AM ET: Export Inspections
4:00 PM ET: Crop Progress

Tuesday, May 14

6:00 AM ET: NFIB Small Business Optimism Index
8:30 AM ET: PPI-Final Demand ***
9:10 AM ET: Fed Governor Lisa Cook Speaks
11:00 AM ET: Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell Speaks ***
4:30 PM ET: API Weekly Oil Stocks

Wednesday, May 15

7:00 AM ET: MBA Mortgage Applications
8:30 AM ET: CPI ***
8:30 AM ET: Retail Sales *
8:30 AM ET: Empire State Manufacturing Index *
10:00 AM ET: Business Inventories
10:00 AM ET: Housing Market Index
10:30 AM ET: EIA Petroleum Status Report *
12:00 PM ET: Minneapolis Federal Reserve Bank President Neel Kashkari Speaks
3:20 PM ET: Fed Governor Michelle Bowman Speaks
4:00 PM ET: Treasury International Capital

Thursday, May 16

8:30 AM ET: Jobless Claims ***
8:30 AM ET: Import and Export Prices
8:30 AM ET: Housing Starts and Permits
8:30 AM ET: Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Index *
8:30 AM ET: Export Sales
9:15 AM ET: Industrial Production *
10:00 AM ET: Fed Governor Michael Barr Speaks
10:30 AM ET: EIA Natural Gas Report
10:30 AM ET: Philadelphia Fed Bank President Patrick Harker Speaks
12:00 PM ET: Cleveland Federal Reserve Bank President Loretta Mester Speaks
3:50 PM ET: Atlanta Fed Bank President Raphael Bostic Speaks
4:30 PM ET: Fed Balance Sheet

Friday, May 17

10:00 AM ET: Leading Indicators
10:00 AM ET: E-Commerce Retail Sales
10:15 AM ET: Fed Governor Christopher Waller Speaks
1:00 PM ET: Baker Hughes Rig Count

*** Market Moving Indicators
* Merit Extra Attention

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This article was originally published on NinjaTrader.com: https://ninjatrader.com/futures/blogs/futures-trading-outlook-e-mini-futures-on-dow-jones-bullish/

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